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Are we headed into recession?

July 02, 2019

Labor market still improving, total employment rising.

?The recent decline in long-term interest relates relative to short-term interest rates has often been associated with a slowing, and maybe even contracting, economy. Looking at the reasons supporting continued economic growth, that is, backing the idea of no imminent recession. First and foremost is the observation that both households and businesses are not overburdened with debt. The labor market is still improving, with both total employment and worker compensation rising. Inflation is not an issue, which means the Federal Reserve could push short-term interest rates lower and provide new confidence to the financial markets. To many economist - including this one - the trade ware are today's biggest potential impediment to continued economic growth. The advantage for the U.S. is that while international trade is important, as a percent of our economy it relatively much, much less important than in other major countries. This gives the U.S. the upper hand in trade negotiations, knowing that reduction in trade hurts the U.S. economy much less than it harms other economies
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Michael Walden